Sunday, December 11, 2011

Improved Moving Average

Improved Moving Average?

December 4, 2011
By
(This article was first published on Timely Portfolio, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)
When @quantfblog started following me on Twitter, I was delighted to discover their papers
Papailias, Fotis and Thomakos, Dimitrios D., An Improved Moving Average Technical Trading Rule (September 11, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1926376
Papailias, Fotis and Thomakos, Dimitrios D., An Improved Moving Average Technical Trading Rule II - Can We Obtain Performance Improvements with Short Sales? (November 12, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1958906
backed by a nice and improving website http://www.quantf.com.  I just could not resist the opportunity to port their improved moving average idea to R and run some additional tests.  The entire process was extremely pleasant due to the authors’ willingness to test, comment, and suggest throughout the implementation process.  Thanks so much to them for all their help.
In this process, I AM NOT OFFERING INVESTMENT ADVICE.  THIS IS SIMPLY A TEST/ILLUSTRATION.  PURSUING THESE CONCEPTS WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS (ALL) OF YOUR MONEY.

From TimelyPortfolio
From TimelyPortfolio
From TimelyPortfolio
For fun, I thought it would be interesting to compare the "Improved Moving Average" to a Mebane Faber style 10-month moving average system.

serania